Voter Fraud in Wisconsin Senate Race
Huge and Improbable Vote Dump Flips Race for Dems
Social media users call shenanigans on bizarre happenings in Wisconsin's US Senate race.
Shenanigans are being called on a key US Senate election in Wisconsin where the race was called for incumbent Democrat candidate Tammy Baldwin last week after an overnight ballot dump pushed her over the edge.
Bro what the fuck https://t.co/QOI6gz5Smy pic.twitter.com/Hd2mMDHc15
— 𝐏𝐚𝐮𝐥𝐨𝐬 (@myth_pilot) November 11, 2024
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Wisconsin Senate Race
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
In Milwaukee, a huge and improbable Dem vote dump flipped the race
In Dane and Winnebago, updates implausibly all improved Dem vote share relative to prior votes. Updates got more extreme after GOP pulled ahead.
A 🧵 pic.twitter.com/u7ykXxRzeO
A graph depicting Wisconsin Senate race vote totals shows how Dems received a massive bump taking them over the top thanks to a trove of mail-in ballots keyed in between the hours of 4 and 5 a.m. on Wednesday after Election Day.
An intrepid X user documented how the ballots in question in Milwaukee, Dane and Winnebago Counties provided an “improbable” bump “implausibly” flipping the race for Dems just as Republicans were pulling ahead.
Check out X user “Shylock Holmes'” research below:
Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Wisconsin Senate Race
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
In Milwaukee, a huge and improbable Dem vote dump flipped the race
In Dane and Winnebago, updates implausibly all improved Dem vote share relative to prior votes. Updates got more extreme after GOP pulled ahead.
A 🧵 pic.twitter.com/u7ykXxRzeO
In Milwaukee, a large vote update of 109K votes, 83% favoring the Democrats, arrived at 3:31am on Wed 11/6, flipping the outcome of the race.
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
This vote batch is improbable on several dimensions:
1. It is late at night
2. It differs from the 67% Dem vote share beforehand
2/N pic.twitter.com/98rUxS4w6E
3. It is 25% of all Senate votes cast in Milwaukee
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
4. It is a considerable fraction (3.2%) of votes in the overall race
5. The race was close beforehand (49.1% Dem vote share)
6. It flipped the outcome of the race
3/N
In Dane and Winnebago, consecutive batches of vote updates manage to consistently improve Democrat vote share relative to the distribution of votes up to that point. This is analogous to flipping a coin and getting 22 out of 24 heads, and 14 out of 14 heads respectively.
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
5/N pic.twitter.com/8hA7t2dd3X
These outcomes are not explained by race type, county size, 2020 Dem vote share, or mail ballots. Dane and Winnebago Senate races have p-values of 0.00000081 and 0.000007, and 6 of the 9 most improbable sequences out of 1,175 races nationwide with at least 8 updates.
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
6/N
The size of the improvements also shows suspicious patterns over time. The amount by which new updates improved on old updates began to get larger at 9:56pm, once the GOP pulled ahead in the national race.
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
7/N pic.twitter.com/Ci4idCmo20
Dane went from updates being 4.8% above the previous average to being 6.6% above the previous average vote share (even though the new average was also higher). Winnebago went from a 3.0% improvement on the prior vote share to a 10.7% improvement on prior vote share.
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
8/N pic.twitter.com/Ij4tm8loAN
All of these patterns individually have other potentially innocent explanations. But the combination of all of them, across different metrics and methodologies, across multiple counties, requires a very large set of coincidences to explain.
— Shylock Holmes (@shylockh) November 11, 2024
9/N
Follow along with “Shylock Holmes'” research on X or on Substack.
X users noted the bump in Wisconsin’s vote totals resembled the bump Biden received from mail-in ballots after Election Day in 2020, suggesting Dems stole the state’s senate race.